There has been an argument since spring about the vigor of recovery ahead, and that discussion is entering a new phase. We finally got a positive GDP number, but the actual, Main Street, sidewalk data stream says the economy is not going anywhere at all. Hence, especially today, you see stocks unable to hold high prices and bonds unable to hold low prices (high rates). The short-term key will be next Friday, November 6, and payrolls for October. The consensus forecast calls for the best number in more than a year, losing only 75,000 jobs; if instead we get a loss in the 150-200,000 range we will that day revisit the September mortgage low.The Fed's post-meeting commentary Wednesday will bear watching, but is more likely to help than to hurt: economic optimists expect a hint at rate increase (modifying the "extended period" of low rates), but the Fed if anything is likely to seem less happy than at its September meeting.