Thursday, October 23, 2008

Mortgage Bonds are bouncing around this morning

This morning, Stocks are trading lower after getting hammered the last several days.

In other news, the Initial Jobless Claims came in, Economists were expecting 465,000 after last months 461,000, but the number came in worse at 478,000 claims are at highest level in more than five years. With Goldman Sachs eliminating 3,200 jobs and other firms cutting back too, the upcoming Jobs Report may continue to look bleak. Adding to the data, foreclosure filings are up 70% from last year and this headline item could be causing the sell off we saw this morning.



The more closely watched continuing claims remains at a 5 year high. Higher unemployment keeps wage based inflation down which is good for the mortgage backed security and other fixed income markets. The markets seemed to pay no attention to this today; however.

Tomorrow we will get the release of existing home sales, but this report will not have much impact as it is backwards looking. If you did not lock yesterday, then by default you are in float club today. Evaluate your position later in the day to determine whether you should lock. Longer term, we still believe rates are heading lower but we could be taking a step back over the next couple days.

Cheers,

Ian Bennett
Mortgage Banker

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