Thursday, May 14, 2009

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) prices are lower (rates higher) as the Fed prepares to purchase debt today, part of an effort to lower consumer borrowing costs and amid a two-week hiatus in the government's auction schedule.

Intial jobless claims jumped 32K to a much higher than expected 637K as a reacceleration in job losses is fed by auto shutdowns. The 4 week moving average, a less volatile measure, rose to 630K from 624K and the total number of people collecting benefits surged 202K to a record 6.56 million, indicating companies are still not hiring.

Prices paid to factories, farmers and other producers rose 0.3% in April, more than forecast, as food costs increased 1.5%, the biggest gain in more than a year. Egg prices spiked 44% due to seasonal adjustments around Easter.

The "core" rate, excluding fuel & food, climbed 0.1% as anticipated. On an annual basis, producer prices were down 3.7%, the biggest drop since 1950. Treasury yields have climbed recently, 65bps since March 18, more as a reflection of a better economic outlook than a signal to step up purchases of government debt by the Fed. The goal is not to target rates but to stimulate private lending & efforts to revive lending are working; 3mo LIBOR declined to a record low 0.85%.

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